Global Macro Framework

From global universe → recommendations with confidence & risk posture

🇺🇸 U.S. 🇪🇺 Europe 🇬🇧 U.K. 🇯🇵 Japan 🇨🇳 China 🇮🇳 India 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan 🌍 EM / Frontier
Equities ETFs Sovereign Bonds Corporate Bonds FX & Commodities

1) Global Universe → Shortlist

Еженедельно отсеиваем из глобальной базы бумаги по ликвидности, факторным рискам и макро‑режимам.

2) Macro & Risk Screens

Оцениваем циклические сигналы (рост/замедление), кредит, волатильность, потоки и технические окна.

3) Recommendation + Confidence

Присваиваем сигнал (Strong/Cautious Buy/Sell) и % Confidence. Для бондов — опция RFQ и лот‑сайзинг.

Strong Buy Cautious Buy Cautious Sell Strong Sell
...

Macro Commentary

Updated: —

Weekly View

Rates: кратко про тон ЦБ/кривую доходности и ожидания по ставкам. (замени текст на актуальный)

Growth: где ускорение/замедление — США, Европа, Азия; отразить PMI/earnings ревизии.

Liquidity & Flows: фон ребалансов, buybacks, ETF‑притоки/оттоки; окна ликвидности.

Credit: спрэды IG/HY, условия фондирования; где аптайд в кэрри.

FX: USD‑режим (risk‑on/off), EMFX и локальные истории (KZT, GCC).

This Week — Key Risks

  • Data: CPI/PPI, payrolls, PMI/ISM, кредитные данные Китая.
  • Policy: заседания ЦБ (Fed/ECB/BoE/BoJ/EM), guidance и балансы.
  • Micro: earnings windows по секторам (семи, банки, дефенсивы).
  • Geopolitics: события/санкции/снабжение — оценка влияния на потоки.
  • Technical: квартальные ребалансы, опционные экспирации, holidays.
Illustrative commentary, not investment advice. Align with client IPS & suitability. Signals update on a scheduled basis.

Global Macro — Recommended List

From our global universe: equities, ETFs & bonds flagged with conviction and risk posture.

NVDA · NVIDIA

Strong Buy
EquityU.S. TechAI

AI infra leader; liquidity & breadth supportive. Define windows around earnings.

See Recommendation

MSFT · Microsoft

Cautious Buy
EquityU.S. TechCloud/AI

Quality/defensive tilt; watch relative valuation and factor rotations.

See Recommendation

AAPL · Apple

Cautious Sell
EquityU.S. Tech

Defensive mega-cap; prefer on pullbacks while monitoring margins & product cycle.

See Recommendation

TSM · TSMC

Strong Buy
EquityAsia GrowthSemis

Foundry scale w/ AI leverage; keep FX/geopolitics and liquidity windows in view.

See Recommendation

INDA · iShares MSCI India ETF

Cautious Buy
ETFAsia Growth

Structural growth; staged entries preferred given valuation and flow dynamics.

See Recommendation

KWEB · China Internet ETF

Cautious Sell
ETFChina Internet

Event‑risk sensitive; mean‑reversion possible. Use risk caps and defined windows.

See Recommendation

KSPI · Kaspi.kz

Cautious Buy
EquityFrontier

Fintech/ecosystem exposure; liquidity improving; watch local flows & FX.

See Recommendation

HSBK · Halyk Bank

Cautious Buy
EquityFrontierFinancials

Quality franchise; dividend factor. Macro/FX sensitivity priced on dips.

See Recommendation

KAZSOV 26 · Kazakhstan Sov (USD)

Strong Buy
BondSovUSD

Frontier USD sov; carry + duration ladder. Execute via RFQ; mind liquidity windows.

See Recommendation RFQ via Desk

SMH · VanEck Semis

Strong Buy
ETFSemiconductors

AI infra theme via diversified semis; liquidity high; check rebal dates.

See Recommendation

ICLN · iShares Clean Energy

Cautious Buy
ETFEnergy Transition

Policy‑sensitive; staged entries & caps. Volatility can be elevated.

See Recommendation

SOXX · iShares Semis

Cautious Sell
ETFSemiconductors

Semis basket; consider pair vs SMH. Monitor breadth & factor rotations.

See Recommendation
Illustrative only. Not investment advice. Use IPS & suitability before allocation.